The Math Club
The Math Club
Pete and Noah
Positive Thinking: Conditional Probability, Bayes' Theorem, and the Base-Rate Fallacy
24 minutes Posted Jun 29, 2022 at 11:00 am.
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In this episode, Noah's certain that he has a disease because he tested positive on a test that's 99% accurate.  Does that mean he almost certainly has the disease?  Pete's not so sure, and brings up a statistics concept to help shed some light on the numbers.

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