Show notes
Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith get you ready for the CFB 2025 season. 🎯 Pittsburgh over 6.5 wins: Pat Narduzzi’s defensive core, featuring Kyle Lewis and Rasheem Biles, plus RB Des Reid’s 1,500+ yards of production, sets the foundation .📉 Arizona State under 8.5 wins: Losing Cam Scadaboo’s 2,300+ yards and facing a schedule with Mississippi State, Baylor, and Utah makes sustaining success unlikely .📉 Oregon under 10.5 wins: QB Dante Moore’s inexperience and just one returning O-line starter threaten offensive stability .📉 South Carolina under 7.5 wins: Despite elite athletes like Sellers and Dillon Stewart, poor O-line play and defensive losses spell regression .📈 Miami’s playoff value: Carson Beck thrives in a less demanding ACC, backed by strong protection and weapons .📈 SMU’s high-ceiling schedule: Early matchups vs Baylor and TCU provide resume-building chances despite roadblocks like Clemson .📈 Louisville as a sleeper: Offensive system continuity and favorable home games against top teams make them a playoff dark horse .📊 Playoff odds snapshot: LSU (+130), Miami (+175), Ole Miss (+170), and Louisville (3-1) stand out as potential value bets .🔢 Critical stretches: South Carolina’s brutal LSU-Oklahoma-Alabama-Ole Miss-Texas A&M stretch likely defines their season .🧠 Coaching & system insights: Dan Lanning’s first season without a veteran QB at Oregon raises big offensive questions, while Kenny Dillingham’s Arizona State faces depth challenges . Pittsburgh’s Path to 7 Wins (0:32–12:00) – Griffin and Lonte outline Pitt’s 7.35 projected wins, highlighting Pat Narduzzi’s defensive focus and RB Des Reid’s Darren Sproles-like dual-threat ability. QB Eli Holstein’s leash may be short with Cole Gonzalez waiting . Arizona State’s Regression (13:23–20:13) – With Cam Scadaboo’s 24-touchdown production gone, Lonte foresees a major offensive dip. Defensive pass rush remains a huge weakness against pass-heavy Big 12 offenses . Oregon’s QB Transition (22:14–28:22) – New starter Dante Moore faces Big Ten defenses with only one O-line starter returning. The Ducks’ WR group also lacks proven playmakers, raising major concerns . South Carolina’s Harsh Reality (29:45–38:53) – Elite athletes like Sellers and Dillon Stewart can’t offset O-line deficiencies (40.1% pressure rate allowed) and defensive attrition from five drafted players . Miami’s Playoff Dark Horse (40:12–43:05) – Carson Beck steps into a loaded Miami offense with top-tier O-line support, benefiting from an ACC schedule lacking Clemson . SMU’s Resume-Building Schedule (43:05–44:52) – Early showdowns with Baylor and TCU could propel SMU into playoff talks despite the challenge of a Clemson road trip . Louisville’s System Advantage (45:58–47:29) – Jeff Brohm’s quarterback-friendly system makes Louisville a reliable value pick, with pivotal home games vs Clemson and Miami . SEC Brutality for South Carolina (35:45–38:53) – A grueling five-game stretch against LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M is likely to derail the Gamecocks’ season . Value in Longshot Playoff Bets (40:12–47:29) – Teams like LSU, Miami, SMU, and Louisville emerge as attractive plus-money playoff bets . Promo & Contest (20:14–49:05) – The episode ends with details on pregame.com’s “Beat Greg Shaker” contest and a 20% promo code for listeners . Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices