How to Trade Prediction Markets Without an Opinion on the Event - Ep. 979 from Unchained

How to Trade Prediction Markets Without an Opinion on the Event - Ep. 979

1 hour 5 minutes Posted Dec 13, 2025 at 1:00 am.

Introduction

Why Markus says prediction market adoption is still in its infancy

Are speculators abandoning bitcoin for prediction markets?

How trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets

How Polymarket and Kalshi compare in strengths and weaknesses

Why Markus thinks Polymarket and Kalshi are likely to remain the dominant players

What traders should consider when choosing a prediction market platform

How the POLY Airdrop could give Polymarket an edge

Will other prediction markets launch a token?

How risks in trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets

Markus walks through a “near certain” Bitcoin trade paying 63% annualized

Strategies to trade prediction markets without having an opinion

Why Markus avoids “moon shot” trades

How to trade by finding “wisdom within the crowd”

How prediction markets enable hedging against real world outcomes

Final thoughts on how traders should approach prediction markets

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Walrus

The prediction market meta is piping hot and everyone wants a piece of the pie.

In this episode of Unchained, 10x Research founder Markus breaks down what the competition boils down to. Plus, will other platforms follow Polymarket's lead and launch a token?

He also walks through a “near certain” trade nestled in Polymarket and shares 10 strategies that can be used to trade prediction markets without an opinion.

One key nugget: “It's the wisdom within the crowd.”

Guest:

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research

Previous appearance on Unchained:

How to Invest in This Bitcoin Downtrend: Bits + Bips

Links

Unchained:

Paradigm Claims Polymarket Trading Figures Are Double Counted

Polymarket Opens US App to Waitlisted Users

Intercontinental Exchange to Invest $2 Billion in Polymarket

Crypto.com and Kalshi Lead Prediction Market Coalition Setup

Kalshi Hits $11B Valuation After $1B Raise: Report

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